A recent article entitled: “Bleak outlook for Tunisia’s economy” by Mourad El Hattab, posted on November 10th, 2013, offers a lot of insightful information for those wondering about the future of Tunisia.
Below is a brief summary of the article:
- “Evaluating the general situation in Tunisia today is almost exclusively based on the evolution of policies, particularly regarding security.”
3 Scenarios to consider (excerpts from the article):
Scenario 1: (High Probability) hinges on the escalation of violence and attacks + creation of a strict budgetary plan to gain access to the IMF loan.
Impact: A fall in tourism revenues and direct foreign investments is anticipated, as is the emergence of a significant social risk and the following of fiscal measures that deter capital and encourage fraud.
Scenario 2: (Moderate likelihood) would be known by a constitutional block and a failure to hold elections.
Impact: Political and social violence, and perhaps even all out social breakdown. Weak foreign aid and the continued absence of visibility are likely to have an impact on direct foreign investments.
Scenario 3: (Weak Probability) may correspond to a second popular uprising accompanied by a default of payments, barring unlikely assistance from the IMF, World Bank, and other large funders.
While none of the scenarios are particularly optimistic, we can all appreciate the author’s straightforward analysis. As expats, we should consider these scenarios as we make our plans moving forward.
Let me know what you think and let’s continue to share information.