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TS Update-(Interesting Analysis)

Greetings Expats,

A recent article entitled:  “Bleak outlook for Tunisia’s economy” by Mourad El Hattab, posted on November 10th, 2013, offers a lot of insightful information for those wondering about the future of Tunisia.

Below is a brief summary of the article:

  • “Evaluating the general situation in Tunisia today is  almost exclusively based on the evolution of policies, particularly regarding security.”

3 Scenarios to consider (excerpts from the article):

Scenario 1:  (High Probability) hinges on the escalation of violence and attacks + creation of a strict budgetary plan to gain access to the IMF loan.

Impact: A fall in tourism revenues and direct foreign investments is anticipated, as is the emergence of a significant social risk and the following of fiscal measures that deter capital and encourage fraud.

Scenario 2:  (Moderate likelihood) would be known by a constitutional block and a failure to hold elections.

Impact:  Political and social violence, and perhaps even all out social breakdown.  Weak foreign aid and the continued absence of visibility are likely to have an impact on direct foreign investments.

Scenario 3:  (Weak Probability) may correspond to a second popular uprising accompanied by a default of payments, barring unlikely assistance from the IMF, World Bank, and other large funders.

Expat Awareness

While none of the scenarios are particularly optimistic, we can all appreciate the author’s straightforward analysis. As expats, we should consider these scenarios as we make our plans moving forward.

Let me know what you think and let’s continue to share information.

 

@DavidSecurity

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One response to “TS Update-(Interesting Analysis)”

  1. Ben Aida Avatar
    Ben Aida

    I tend to agree with the scenarios outligned above and here is why:

    It is clear that since the elections October , 23, 2011, those who didn’t gain enough seats in the constituant, as they expected, have decided to be in the opposition rather than being part of those who will work to draft a new constitution and help in the shaping of a new democratic country. That was evident by their attitude during the early days of the deliberations in the constituant. All their actions were an attempt to counter what the majority was attempting to do rather than participating in the creation of a new nation close enough to their desire in a forciful and positive way. Since the majority appeared to have the upper hand in the decisions making, the opposition reacted negatively and tried to stop the whole process. As a result, some groups, who were outside these decisions making, took advantage of this vacum and try to impose their own presence with political assasinations, work strikes and other civil desobediences.

    All these forces were successful in weakening the temporary government and helped the rapid downfall of an economy that has suffered since the beginning of the revolution. We all know that, dunring the early days of this big change in Tunisia, many countries and financial institutions have promised all kind of help in order to make this revolution a successful one. However, seeing the political infighting taking a dangerous route all these promises seem to be put on hold.

    Now, we have reached a situation of political instabilty, political confrontation and economical chaos. Thus, Ibn Khaldoun analysis and thesis will be applicable in the near future. I think that Tunisians as their neighbors in North Africa and like most mediterraneen countries have a hard time resolving their differencices peacefully where all will be winners..

    Reply

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