Intelligence analysis is a way of reducing the uncertainty of highly unpredictable situations by systematically reviewing open source information.

Tunisia faces a crucial week ahead and as Expats we need to make sure that we’re aware of the various developing stories taking place this week.

Setting the Stage…

It was announced today (Sunday, 14 Oct), that the Tunisian political and presidential elections will be held on June 23, 2013, but will this announcement be enough to:

a.  satisfy those who firmly claim that October 23rd is the last day for the current government?

b.  address the security concerns regarding statements made by various salafists groups?

In other words, will this announcement finally put to rest the issues revolving around October 23rd?

While the short answer is NO…the truth is that nobody really knows how things will play out.

What we do know…

I would like to point out (1) developing story which highlights the seriousness of the situation we are facing:

Article:        Salafist Sheikh Khamis Mejri reveals:  attacks are planned in Tunisia

Source:        Business News

Key Excerpt:  The words of Sheikh Mejri were marked by two important revelations… Firstly, he noted that weapons circulate in large numbers in the country and that the attacks are planned.  This is hard data and not mere assumptions and other deductions.” Sheikh Khamis announced then that the Salafi youth is certainly for the moment, under control, but if the repression continues, nothing can be guaranteed, as these young people may have uncontrollable behavior even if the leaders forbid them…

Analysis:  As Expats we have to understand that not only did a revolution just take place in Tunisia, but we’re also in the midst of a very competitive political campaign.  Whether the Sheikh’s words were a veil threat to others in the political arena or an honest assessment of the situationt, the fact is that he went on the record to make those declarations.  As such we have to take him seriously.

According to the head of the Council of Arab Interior Ministers:  “Political turmoil which has swept the Arab world has benefited “terrorism” and criminality”   Mr. Mohamed Ben Ali Koumane stated that the “preachers of terrorism have profited from the security deficit.”

Fortunately, Tunisia has the necessary tools to get through this challenging period.  This month we’ll see how well they deal with the October 23rd challenges.

As Expats we need to maintain a high degree of personal safety & situational awareness.

Let’s keep sharing information and helping each other out.

Stay safe out there.