Big Picture Analysis
At the Tunisia Security Update blog, we like to stick to our model of providing relevant and practical security information mainly for the Expat community living within Tunis, but every once in a while in order to provide readers with adventitious information, we have to venture into the tricky arena of ‘speculation’.
Trying to read in-depth analysis during a revolution is rather difficult and due to the lack of English-speaking local media within Tunisia; the Expat community is usually fairly behind even the casually informed local citizen.
The last ‘revolution’ sort of caught us off guard. We’re not at all embarrassed to admit it since it even caught many world governments and intelligence agencies by surprise.
The main reason why it came as a surprise was because we did not put the pieces together in time to inform others. The clues were all there: Wiki Leaks, Riots in the South, uprisings, etc…
Fortunately, we have corrected these shortcomings through the use of good social networks, security collaboration, and fine tuned media searches.
Big Picture Clues…
Although the security community has definitely become more friendly in terms of sharing information and cooperation; we can all contribute to the security analysis process.
As you read the following clues try to think about the big picture and the impact these new events will have within the larger Tunisia Security Frame.
1. Massive ‘accidental’ prison break.
2. Accidental video posted by a former minster that unquestionably undermines the current interim government.
3. The developments coincide with the conviction by a Tunis court of a nephew of Leila Trabelsi, Tunisia’s widely reviled former first lady, on drug consumption charges.
Imad Trabelsi was sentenced on Saturday to two years in prison and a $1,000 fine, according to Mokhtar Trifi, president of the Tunisian League of Human Rights.
4. Military pulled back from most major streets.
5. Lieutenant General and Army Chief Rachid Ammar was promoted to the rank of Chief of Staff of the Tunisian Armed Forces.
We can take these ‘big picture clues’ and speculate all day about their possible implications, but one thing is for sure; we have entered a new stage in this transition.
What does it all mean, and more importantly what does this all mean for the international community living and working in Tunisia, is something that we will cover extensively in the near future.
For now, let’s ponder on these clues and together we will be able to figure this thing out before the next big day of chaos…
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”-Benjamin Franklin